Picking An NBA Finals winner – Yelling It From The Mountain

Next on the list of NBA Finals opinions is DMtShooter of Five Tool Tool…

Here’s the thing about picking an NBA Finals winner right now — it’s kind of like picking a horse to win a race without knowing where they are at the gate. (For the sake of argument, imagine that none of the horses is Secretariat.) So even if you love a horse, do you really love him on the farthest in or out position?

We can pretty much assume that the favorite will come from the West, so that’s where your winner is coming from, right? Not necessarily… what happens if a Boston or Detroit (or even a Cleveland with LeBron going into Uber Mode?) has a 4-game sweep, while the Western champion goes seven? Well then, the Eastern champion can then easily steal a game or two early, and voila… there goes that prediction.

But let’s assume that nothing happens along those lines, and the champ is whoever survives the West. Right now, there are 9 teams for 8 spots, and the 9 seed as I write this (Denver) is 2.5 games out from a 4 seed. I’m not even sure you can predict who is going to make the playoffs, let alone advance… but let’s toss out a few teams as being Unworthy.

Denver — Not enough defense, and since that comes from the stars (Anthony and Iverson), it translates on down. Golden State — See Denver, and both teams have coaches that have never shone on the highest stage. Houston — Still trying to figure out how to play both Ming and McGrady, and unlike any of the other top teams, deficient at the point guard position. Dallas — I’m not a fan of the Kidd trade, because he’s not the guy that he used to be, and unless he starts shooting like he isn’t, well, him… they’re just going to lose with him in half-court.

Five to go, and here’s where it gets back to that pole position problem. New Orleans probably doesn’t have the stones to get it done in their first year in the league, but they’ve got the Conference’s best player this year (shh) in Chris Paul, and just enough other good players to be dangerous. In the end, their lack of a home-court edge kills whatever chance they might have. They are the last of the Final Five that seems like an easy choice to be out.

San Antonio, Los Angeles, Utah and Phoenix. Well, if Utah gets San Antonio, they lose, because Parker gets back as much as Williams gets, and Duncan makes their bigs disappear, and Bowen has enough left to make Korver go poof. But if they miss the Spurs and someone else takes them out, maybe they go all the way… because they have the bigs to match up with the Lakers, and Williams will torch the Lakers nearly as much as Kobe touches Utah, and Utah’s bench isn’t bad either, and Korver can get loose against the Laker Show…

The Spurs are the defending champs, but that usually isn’t a winning equation for them, since they tend to lose when they defend. Kurt Thomas was a nice little pick up, and when they’ve got Duncan, Ginobili and Parker they are damned near indefensible. But in a 7-game series with the Lakers, Kobe will overcome Bowen enough, and Gasol will give them enough of a fighter’s chance…

Phoenix? Wild card. A motivated Shaq is always a powerful thing, and the sudden release of Marion could be the morale boost they need to do damage. Also, maybe this finally wakes up Boris Diaw, and they’ve had playoff success against the Lakers in the past, mostly because Nash carves them up and Amare’s defensive struggles haven’t been an issue against the Laker bigs. Finally, Raja Bell gives Kobe some trouble, and you’d have to think that Shaq could turn it on a bit against that team, if he can still do it against anyone. But we know they can’ t beat the Spurs.

Finally, the Lake Show. Probably the most talented team in the league now, thanks to the Gasol fleecing, with the coach that’s won it more than any other. But they haven’t been together for very long, they could easily mess up bringing Bynum back, and it’s not like Kobe hasn’t turned up small for them in the very recent past, or froze his teammates when things aren’t going his way. Defensively, they aren’t good at all at point guard, which is a huge problem when faced with the likes of Paul, Williams, Nash and Parker, and of all of the top contenders, they seem to me to be the most likely to stumble early, because they’re still going to getting their rotation sorted out.

If I had to bet on any team, it’d be the Lake Show; there’s a reason why Coach Philip has all of those rings, after all, and in crunch time, they put Kobe on the other team’s point guard and enjoy a quantum leap in defensive effectiveness. Also, I like their bench a lot; Jordan Farmer has been aces, and when Bynum returns, either he or Lamar Odom joins that unit, which is just kind of crazy, really. Luke Walton is also a perfect bench guy, and even Radmanovic can do some damage in small doses. They go deeper than most, especially Phoenix.

But in the tightest and best playoff race in recent NBA history, there’s really no way to call this before the horses come to the gate. Check back in April, when we know more — and, probably, know nothing at all.

Still more opinions to come… stay tuned – same bat-time, same bat-channel…

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NBA Finals – History Repeats?

A follow-up to the piece NBA Finals – Who Wins? , here is a collection of responses from around Blogfrica to the same question: Who wins the NBA finals?

Jeff Clark, CelticsBlog.com
Celtics over the Lakers, just like the old days

Darren Heitner, Sports Agent Blog
East – Boston Celtics
West – LA Lakers
With Garnett coming back to the C’s, they are in a prime position to easily conquer the East. Jesus Shuttlesworth (Ray Ray) and Paul Pierce have been undervalued for years. Along with the emergence of great role players like Rajon Rondo, the Celtics will have no problem making it to the finals.

Looking at the West, I pick the Lakers because it seems like they gave up the least in order to put themselves in a position to win it all. Not to mention that they have the best all around player in Kobe Bryant. They got rid of Kwame Brown, who has not been able to live up to his expectations and Javaris Crittendon. Crittendon was not going to help them out at all this year. In return, Pau Gasol has already changed the landscape of the West and the return of Bynum will make the team dominant.
The Suns gave up Shawn Marion, who I believe was necessary for them to make any run and the Mavericks gave up way too much to acquire Kidd. I believe that the Mavs will be too thin on the bench to make it to the Finals.
The one team to never forget in this mix is the Spurs, who should make it deep into the playoffs once again.
The Celtics win it all…

Rob, With Malice…
The East looks pretty cut and dried this year with the Celtics and Pistons the obvious class in the field. The Pistons experience in big games will see them easily reach the Conference Finals where they will lose in 6 to the Celtics juggernaut.
The West is a huge mystery as regular season form seems to count for nothing come playoff time. I think the final four in the West will be made up of the Lakers, Suns, Spurs and Mavs.
I think Kidd gives the Mavs a legimate chance, while the inside game that Shaq provides the Suns will add an extra dimension and be good enough to get past the first round at least.
Pau Gasol was a huge addition for the Lakers, but I think they continue to live and die with Kobe and I don’t think he can carry this team all the way.
Betting against the Spurs is a dangerous game, but I think they’re done before the Conference Finals. I’m going with the Suns and Mavs in the CF with the Mavs taking the series in 7.
I think the big minutes played by Glenn Davis and Leon Powe are going to count for a lot down the stretch.
I’m seeing the Celtics riding the Big 3 with Rondo and James Posey being huuuuuuge to take the championship rings in 5. Paul Pierce and Sweet Ray to get sainthoods and KG to get a statue next to Red Auerbach!

There’s more to come, stay tuned to With Malice over the next few days – more opinions…

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