AFL Tipping…

Normally I don’t speak about my tipping prowess, or lack thereof.  But I’m getting a bit of pressure from an old, old mate of mine back in Oz (hey Shane!).

I participate in a tipping competition with my old State League volleyball club – Mornington VC.  Currently leading it, but that’s no big deal – I am doing pretty well across the NAB Tipping site tho’ – currently I am ranked 748 out of 163,851 (look for Errr… Don) – with a score of 106.  Puts me in the top .5%.

Now, that said and done… anyone got any ideas for round 19?

Kicking Balls: AFL Finals Week 3 – Do or Die

This week, I’ll be doing the preview for Kicking Balls as iscdaws is currently trying to catch up on sleep after the birth of his daughter. Congratulations go out to John & his newly grown family…

This weekend, the Collingwood Magpies take on the Geelong Cats, and the Kangaroos take on the Port Adelaide Power.

Collingwood vs Geelong
The first game is on Friday night – Collingwood versus Geelong, at the MCG.
This should be an absolute ripper of a game… but nothing I’ve seen thus far indicates that the Magpies can match it with the Cats. Geelong’s been the class unit all year long – only losing 4 games for the year, and not once has been beaten by more than 20 points. In the second half of the season, they’ve lost once: to Port Adelaide by 5 points in round 21. Add to this, they have had a week’s rest.

Kicking Balls: AFL Finals Week 2 – It’s all or nothing

Just the two games this weekend, with the losers packing their bags for the year. There don’t appear to be any stand-out favourites this week, both games look evenly matched and for the winners, the daunting prospects of the top 2 sides at home the following week is their reward.

West Coast vs Collingwood
The Eagles have seen their midfield decimated by injuries this year. For this match there will be no Kerr, no Cousins and no Judd. They will regain former fab 4 member Fletcher and CHF Ash Hansen which will be big ins to help ease the pain of the Judd/Cousins outs. For the Pies: no change to the side that beat Sydney last week.
If ever there was an opportunity to beat the Eagles in a final at Subiaco, this is it, but Collingwood haven’t won there since 1992 ( I think…).
The game will be decided in a couple of areas. If the Eagles win the midfield battle, that will take them a long way towards a win, as that will negate the effectiveness of Collingwoods’ 3 talls forward line that was so effective last week. If the midfield battle is even then it will come down to who takes their chances in front of goal. Personally, I see West Coast sneaking out of this with a win by under 10 points.

Hawthorn vs Kangaroos
The Kangaroos have had injury added to insult, with Corey Jones to miss and Leigh Brown dropped for the clash with Hawthorn. Again Hawthorn will look to use Glenn Archer’s ageing, slowing frame to their advantage by rotating fast leading players off him, whilst the Franklin/Roughead show will continue to cause nightmares. Hodge is expected to play having recovered from his knock, as is Campbell Brown. Kangaroos won’t dwell on the failures of last week and will put in a much improved showing, but I’m tipping them to limp out of the finals in straight sets, the Hawthorn midfield will be too skillful, their defence too dominant – especially without Brown and Jones… and their forwards too hot to handle, so the Hawks to win by 18 points.

These teams have everything to play for, so we should be in for some scintilating footy over the weekend. May the footy gods smile on your team.

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Kicking Balls: AFL Finals Week 1- Sudden Death and Second Chances

This is it, time for Champions to stand up, and the coodabeens to fall by the wayside. With 4 Victorian teams making the finals, could this be the year that the Cup returns to it’s spiritual home?

Port Adelaide vs West Coast
The Eagles don’t like playing Port, and especially don’t like playing them in Adelaide. They’ve won 1/10 against the Power at AAMI, and were belted by 90-odd points there earlier this year. Much depends on availability for West Coast, with Judd, Cousins, Cox, Selwood, Embley and Priddis facing fitness tests and Hansen and Kerr still on the sidelines. The Power have defied most predicitons this year, and will be looking for a hard earned weeks break and home Preliminary final. I see the Power continuing their dominance over the Eagles, and depending on exactly who is available, they should win by anywhere from 20-50 points.

Collingwood vs Sydney
Haven’t we seen this before? These two teams met just a couple of weeks ago, but since then form seems to have changed. The Swans were dynamic in their defeat of Hawthorn, whilst Collingwood just couldn’t handle the Crows last week. The Swans will be close to full strength and are seasoned September campaigners, Collingwood will need to play their best footy to stop the Swans from eliminating them at the first hurdle. If the Swans can win the midfield then they will win the day. I’m tipping Swans by 20 points.

Kicking Balls: AFL Round 22 Preview

Well finally we come to the end of the home & away season. Only 1 spot is up for grabs in the 8, but still plenty of shuffling for position to continue. Plus it will be nice to get back to actually playing footy rather than all the dramas going on off the pitch.

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Collingwood vs Adelaide
If Adelaide win, they are in the 8. Lose, and they need results to go their way. Collingwood are playing to see if they can finish 5th or 6th, with the latter the most likely. For some reason I can see the Crows getting up in this one and making the rest of the battles to get in the 8 a non-event. Having said that, the Pies proved last week they aren’t done with yet and still think they can muster a september challenge. I’m tipping the Crows by 15 points.

Richmond vs St Kilda
It’s not inconceivable that, deflated from watching their season end the night before, the Saints may just get rolled and lift the Tiges off the bottom of the ladder. Somehow I see the Saints finishing off with a win though. The Tiges will struggle to contain the Saints forwards and on-ballers in what could be the last game for Robert Harvey and Fraser Gehrig, though rumours are circulating they’ll be talked into one more year. Saints by 20 points.

Kicking Balls: AFL Round 21 Preview

[Editor’s note: Apologies for this not being up BEFORE the beginning of the Friday night game – my fault entirely (was out!)…]

Here we are, the penultimate round of games, with some fantastic contests set to keep us entertained right through the weekend.

St Kilda vs West Coast

This is a hard one. West Coast have selected Cousins and Judd, but some doubt remains as to whether they’ll take their places, and what shape they will be in if they do. With Kerr out for 6-8 weeks with a finger injury, and Embley out for 2 with a hammy, the form and availability of these 2 is paramount. St Kilda will be without some guns too, Harvey, Baker and Hudghton will miss, but if Judd and Cous don’t play, their loss will be adequately covered. So for the first time, I will make tips based on availability. If Cousins and Judd play, West Coast by 12points: If only Cousins or Judd, St Kilda by 6 points: If neither play, St Kilda by 18 points.

Carlton vs Kangaroos

The Kangas have lost 3 on the trot and are looking nervously below them on the ladder. Carlton have had 3 gallant losses in a row too, but will be without Fevola for the rest of the season. On paper, Kangaroos should bound along to victory by 6-8 goals, but the Blues are a better side than many think. But with priority draft picks for the Blues and top 4 spot for the Kangas up for grabs, we probably know this will end in a Kangaroos win by 20 points.

Kicking Balls: Round 20 AFL tips

It’s tipping time once again. Some exciting games coming up this week with teams and players fighting tooth and nail for their footballing futures.

Collingwood vs Melbourne

Four weeks ago Pies fans though they would coast through and possibly win all their remaining games. 2 losses and a close-run win later, and things don’t look so cut and dried. Melbourne have won their past 4 in a row against Collingwood, and are coming off handing out a pasting to the Western Bulldogs last week. Collingwood became only the second team to lose to Richmond, who are a better side than that record suggests, and must surely be feeling nervous about this one. A loss here and as many as 4 teams could move to within 1 game of them on the ladder with 2 rounds left. I think Collingwood will steady their season, despite David Neitz playing his 300th game in a Melbourne jumper. Pies by 10 points.

Kicking Balls: Round 19 AFL preview

Well, it’s coming right down to the business end of the season. A few sides have the finals destiny in their own hands, whilst others are at the mercy of the footy gods, praying for some more results like last weeks draw and Freo’s fantastic win against West Coast.

This weeks games see some more top of the table action, but there are a few danger games for top sides against strugglers.

Richmond vs Collingwood

Richmond have had their worst year in a very long time. It is highly conceivable they will win just the one game for the year with a tough run home, but they will not be without a modicum of confidence tomorrow night. The Pies form has dipped: they got away with a win in time-on last week, and look a shadow of the team we saw just a few rounds ago. One wonders how the Tigers would win though, it seems they live in the hope that Matty Richardson and Nathan Brown will break loose and kick bags of goals… yet without the delivery from the midfield, this is impossible.

Kicking Balls: Round 18 AFL

Welcome to Kicking Balls: the AFL tips and results section.

Perhaps I should tell you a little about myself. Being a Melbourne boy originally, it is fair to say I was born with AFL blood in my vains. Born into a Fitzroy family, (my first photo was in my fathers 1940’s Maroon’s jumper, I never had a chance..) I have followed the game closely all my life. I spent much of my youth at various grounds around Melbourne frantically waving my flag, dreaming that one day my boys would win that elusive flag.

After the demise of my beloved roys in 96 I decided against aligning myself with another team, prefering instead to just enjoy the games for what they were, brilliant sporting contests. Of course, that isn’t to say I didn’t get SOME pleasure watching the Lions beat Essendon and Collingwood in the Grand Finals of 2001, 2002 and 2003! Of course though, it helps in tipping to listen to the head a little more than the heart…

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In what has been roundly declared ‘the closest season in living memory’, tipping has been something of a nightmare. I’m sure most people at the start of the year had an idea of how they thought the ladder would look by this stage of the year, and only a very brave few would have predicted a top 4 including Geelong, Kangaroos and Port Adelaide. This week offers little respite for tippers I’m afraid. With only 3 of 16 sides certain to miss finals (yes, mathematically Freo CAN still make it..) and only 2 sides virtually guaranteed spots in the final 8, this week sees 5 of the 8 games fature head-to-head battles between finals aspirants.